Topic: 2017 VP Results - Not Great! Posted: Today at 6:08pm
I have gone over and over my results for 2017. It does not matter how I look at them, by trip, by casino, by denomination, or whatever, the bottom line is, on total play of about $0.98 million, I was down about $9500 at the machines themselves. Cashback and MSS scratch cards totalled about $1500, reducing the deficit to $8000.
That amount of coining produced around 1,017,140 total hands. I had 33 royal flushes, which averages to one per 30800 total hands played. One would think that the better than average royal success would translate to a wining year, but that was certainly not so.
I played four denominations, 5c, 25c, 50c, and$1.
The 5c play was all at Harrah's Laughlin on 50 line machines (deuces wild bonus at 98.8% return). Total coinin was $111450, which produced 445800 hands, and 17 royal flushes (1 per 26200 hands). I was ahead $2150 here.
My 25c play was at many locations - Harrah's Laughlin and Lake Tahoe, Main Street Station, Gold Coast, The Cromwell, the M, Aquarius, Casino Rama, and a tiny,tiny bit at several Caesar's strip properties. The bulk of the play was multiline. Total play was $577000, which produced 461600 hands and 12 royals (1 per 38470 hands). Despite the good royal count, I was down $7700 at the 25c level. At 25c I played 8/5 bonus poker, 9/6 JOB, NSU deuces, "airport" deuces and 8/5 ACE$ bonus.
The 50c play was all 8/5 bonus poker at Seneca Niagara. Total play was $261800, producing 104720 hands and 4 royal flushes (1 per 26180 hands). But again, despite a decent number of royals, i had a negative result, this time $2300.
The $1 play was minimal - about 5300 hands ($26500 coining) of single line 8/5 bonus poker at the Rio, which produced a $1600 loss.
So far this year, I'm up $50 at Casino Rama, and $200 at Seneca Niagara, but down $500 at Laughlin. A two week Las Vegas trip starts next week.
OMT it's interesting that your Las Vegas results were less than stellar especially considering it took up over 61% of your play. Do you know what your "boat anchor" game in Las Vegas was? My easy guess would be ACES$ Bonus. Would you consider substituting DDB for ACES$ Bonus in Las Vegas?
Best of luck to you and your wife on your upcoming trip.
OMT....first off I sincerely applaud your detailed record keeping and your meticulous analysis... excellent job. If only I still did this as well, my AC arguments might hold more weight, but I used to do what you did, every year from 1993 thru 2010...
After looking at your figures though, I'm not certain what's happening here.... I can understand you being disappointed by having a year end Net Loss, but I don't think your results were all that bad considering how VP has been the last decade....
Doing a straight simple return %, we see you gambled just under one million bucks (980,000) and had a machine loss of 9500, so that means 970,500 bucks was returned to you for a return of 99%. Well see, that's spot on for the best games available, which you choose, so in essence you got exactly what you should! I myself would have been ecstatic with 99% returns any of the last five years I seriously played (2011 to 2016)...
The troubling aspect of your numbers which you clearly touched upon is the fact you lost money while being significantly Over Royalled! Obviously for this to happen, you had more than the mathematically expected rate of "duds" (non paying) hands, which should comprise 55% of your total hands played. You must have been well over 55% to be down 9500 while getting a royal on average every 30-31,000 hands instead of every 44-45,000 like expected!
This has been the bane of my AC playing from 2011 to 2016.... I have had far too many duds, way beyond the 55% threshold during that entire period which prompted me to suspect something was off with the casinos and VP games. In your case though, it's obvious you just had a mathematically aberrational year, with a year end result that isn't all that poor...
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