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Topic: A thoery question? Post Reply
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stevel96a1
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Quote stevel96a1 Replybullet Topic: A thoery question?
    Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 5:10pm
Every 40k turns should produce s royal? So the same should happen if i had 40000 vp machines lined up and 40000 people all hit once at same time 1 should produce a royal?
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billryan
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Quote billryan Replybullet Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 7:47pm
I think you would have a 50-50 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 50-50 chance of there being two.

Edited by billryan - 21 Sep 2017 at 9:08pm
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onemoretry
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Quote onemoretry Replybullet Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 8:53pm
Originally posted by stevel96a1

Every 40k turns should produce s royal? ?
That's not really correct.

The fact that the statistical average is around one royal per 40000 hands does not mean you "should" hit one in that number of hands.
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Stan_7777
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Quote Stan_7777 Replybullet Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 1:38pm
Would not the factor that the odds would pertain to each of the 40000 machines, each having played only 1 of 40,000 plays?
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billryan
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Quote billryan Replybullet Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 2:12pm
I would think 40,000 people having one spin on 40,000 machines would be no different than 40,000 people each taking one spin on one machine, or one person taking one spin on 40,000 machines, or one person taking 40,000 spins on one machine. I think the only factor that matters is the 40,000 spins.
Could be wrong. Certainly wouldn't be the first time. Or the last.
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BobDancer
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Quote BobDancer Replybullet Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 3:03pm
Originally posted by billryan

I think you would have a 50-50 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 50-50 chance of there being two.


It's actually closer to:

1/3 of the time nobody would hit a royal:
1/3 of the time there would be exactly one royal;
1/3 of the time two or more would be hit.

if you go to the www.gamblingwithanedge.com website, my weekly column from 10 days ago gave a discussion of this type of situation.

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Vman96
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Quote Vman96 Replybullet Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 11:32pm
Originally posted by billryan

I think you would have a 50-50 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 50-50 chance of there being two.


It's closer to a 1 - 1/e chance of someone hitting at least one.

e = 2.718281828459045

1 - 1/e = 0.6321205588

More accurate answer for a hypothetical game with a royal cycle of exactly 40,000.

1 - (39999/40000)^40000 = 0.6321251574

Edited by Vman96 - 22 Sep 2017 at 11:33pm
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billryan
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Quote billryan Replybullet Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 11:54pm
Originally posted by Vman96

Originally posted by billryan

I think you would have a 50-50 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 50-50 chance of there being two.


It's closer to a 1 - 1/e chance of someone hitting at least one.

e = 2.718281828459045

1 - 1/e = 0.6321205588

More accurate answer for a hypothetical game with a royal cycle of exactly 40,000.

1 - (39999/40000)^40000 = 0.6321251574


While I appreciate your response, I really don't understand it. Could you dumb it down a half dozen notches or so? Thanks.
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BobDancer
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Quote BobDancer Replybullet Posted: Yesterday at 2:04am
Originally posted by billryan



While I appreciate your response, I really don't understand it. Could you dumb it down a half dozen notches or so? Thanks.


I already did.

While VMAN correctly said the chance for at least one royal was 63.1%, my "simplified" answer was 66.7% --- which I believe is close enough for most people trying to get a general grasp of the situation.

If you're doing exact calculations, his number is much better than mine.




Edited by BobDancer - Yesterday at 2:05am
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