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stevel96a1
Forum Newbie
Posts: 6

Topic: A thoery question? Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 5:10pm 
Every 40k turns should produce s royal? So the same should happen if i had 40000 vp machines lined up and 40000 people all hit once at same time 1 should produce a royal?

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billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1210

Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 7:47pm 
I think you would have a 5050 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 5050 chance of there being two.
Edited by billryan  21 Sep 2017 at 9:08pm

It's what you do and not what you say
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onemoretry
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1211

Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 8:53pm 
Originally posted by stevel96a1
Every 40k turns should produce s royal? ? 
That's not really correct.
The fact that the statistical average is around one royal per 40000 hands does not mean you "should" hit one in that number of hands.

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Stan_7777
Forum Newbie
Posts: 6

Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 1:38pm 
Would not the factor that the odds would pertain to each of the 40000 machines, each having played only 1 of 40,000 plays?

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billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1210

Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 2:12pm 
I would think 40,000 people having one spin on 40,000 machines would be no different than 40,000 people each taking one spin on one machine, or one person taking one spin on 40,000 machines, or one person taking 40,000 spins on one machine. I think the only factor that matters is the 40,000 spins.
Could be wrong. Certainly wouldn't be the first time. Or the last.

It's what you do and not what you say
If you're not part of the future then get out of the way

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BobDancer
VP Veteran
Posts: 679

Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 3:03pm 
Originally posted by billryan
I think you would have a 5050 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 5050 chance of there being two. 
It's actually closer to:
1/3 of the time nobody would hit a royal: 1/3 of the time there would be exactly one royal; 1/3 of the time two or more would be hit.
if you go to the www.gamblingwithanedge.com website, my weekly column from 10 days ago gave a discussion of this type of situation.

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Vman96
Video Poker Master
Posts: 2475

Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 11:32pm 
Originally posted by billryan
I think you would have a 5050 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 5050 chance of there being two. 
It's closer to a 1  1/e chance of someone hitting at least one.
e = 2.718281828459045
1  1/e = 0.6321205588
More accurate answer for a hypothetical game with a royal cycle of exactly 40,000.
1  (39999/40000)^40000 = 0.6321251574
Edited by Vman96  22 Sep 2017 at 11:33pm

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billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1210

Posted: 22 Sep 2017 at 11:54pm 
Originally posted by Vman96
Originally posted by billryan
I think you would have a 5050 chance of someone hitting one. You'd also have a 5050 chance of there being two. 
It's closer to a 1  1/e chance of someone hitting at least one.
e = 2.718281828459045
1  1/e = 0.6321205588
More accurate answer for a hypothetical game with a royal cycle of exactly 40,000.
1  (39999/40000)^40000 = 0.6321251574 
While I appreciate your response, I really don't understand it. Could you dumb it down a half dozen notches or so? Thanks.

It's what you do and not what you say
If you're not part of the future then get out of the way

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BobDancer
VP Veteran
Posts: 679

Posted: Yesterday at 2:04am 
Originally posted by billryan
While I appreciate your response, I really don't understand it. Could you dumb it down a half dozen notches or so? Thanks.  I already did.
While VMAN correctly said the chance for at least one royal was 63.1%, my "simplified" answer was 66.7%  which I believe is close enough for most people trying to get a general grasp of the situation.
If you're doing exact calculations, his number is much better than mine.
Edited by BobDancer  Yesterday at 2:05am

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